This is all inconceivably complicated …
Attempts to forecast the Forex market behavior are becoming more and more elaborate, the most modern mathematic methods are employed, methods of mathematical statistics, all kinds of filters, the price graph is found the logarithm of, differentiated, all this is normalized with something, a correlation is calculated, and so on and so forth. So, I, candidate of technical sciences, start to understand that I’m lag behind dramatically. Forex traders, seeming to be common guys, easily operate with such most complicated notions as linear and non-linear regression, their statements swarm with indicator names which I haven’t even heard of. Reading further, you start to understand that these are developers of mechanical trading systems (MTS). And everything now is in its place. An unrealizable dream of creating software which will trade and make huge money for you attracts many traders like a flame attracts moth. And large quantities of resources are spent!
When I had to work in the dealing hall (now I work only at home), I clearly saw a group of analyzers, as I called them. They had their aims substituted, so their aim was not to earn money but to analyze and forecast the market behavior. This was their drug. These guys must have left for the field of MTS design, and the very process of creating these systems is the ultimate satisfaction for them.
By no means I’d like to say that here’s me, the clever guy, and they mess around. They will probably invent something, they are pure fanatics and in many cases most educated specialists. Like chemistry was born from alchemy, their efforts will probably give birth to something new and useful. This is the way they chose. But I value time too much and I’ll better earn in the ways I can.
Forex trading is not a gift, it is a skill which can be acquired in the course of study and practice. Every skill, be it golf playing, piano or trading, can be trained. Regrettably, beginner traders often ignore the concept of Forex trading being a skill and the reality of studying the curve, because the glistening gold makes them try to earn money before they understand what they are doing.
It is surprising but the teaching curve of a trader does not depend on the system chosen. It makes no difference, whether you are day trader, positional trader or an investor. If you will be learning from professionals by their books or listen to them at conferences, you will find out that they use different trading systems which distinctly differ from one another. But their teaching curves and experience are similar.
When they are asked what they want to get from the Forex market, many traders say they want to make money. But to start with, the primary aim of a Forex trader is to learn being consistent. Whether he makes money in the first place is not so important for a long-term career, as making a pattern for correct trading which can be rebuilt and improved with time. Creating such a pattern should be the primary aim.